Author: Alex Harris
Bets on all tennis favorites, without additional selection, are hardly profitable at the distance. Most often the odds on them are unprofitable because of the overshoots. But there are a number of filters that will help you correctly select favorites for betting.
Who are the favorites and the underdog in tennis
The favorite is the leader of the match according to the bookmaker. The odds of his success are always lower than those of his opponent. But sensations in tennis are not less frequent than in other sports and outsiders with odds 2.50-3.00 and higher regularly win.
By this strategy it is recommended to play men's tennis and favorites with odds from 1.50 to 1.79. Above 1.80 it is already about equal chances to win with less than 55% probability. Odds below 1.50 are not recommended to play at all, but if a suitable variant is found with a close keff, it is acceptable to put it through a minus forum or the exact score 2:0.
The essence of the strategy for the selection of tennis favorites
It's necessary to choose favorites in men's tennis with suitable odds, and then sift them through several filters. Selection criteria:
Skip betting on favorites in tennis who play in a foreign country against one of the local players. Outsiders in the "home country" sometimes work wonders and offer fierce resistance to even the strongest players. Ideally, if the favorite plays at home itself.
We remove those who played more than 8-9 games in the last two weeks. Especially, if these games were held in other countries and, moreover, in other parts of the world. These tennis players will inevitably have problems with the schedule and adjustment.
We also remove players who are significantly older than their current opponent. The difference of 5-7 years is still acceptable, but if the gap is ten years and more, an experienced player often cannot cope with the pressure of the younger generation. Especially if he is already well into his thirties.
We filter out athletes who play in tournaments that are not important to them. Every tournament has a level of prestige, and if a regular ATP Masters player comes to the Challenger he is probably just a warm-up. Exception: if he did well here last time and came to defend ranking points. It is also acceptable to take such favorites in the first round.
Then we remove those who do not play well against their current opponent or similar players. Especially, on the current coverage of the tournament. Everyone has their comfortable and uncomfortable opponents and surfaces. Some play better on the ground, others on the hard court, others play hard against left-handed players. These factors need to be taken into account and, if in doubt, it is better to skip.
A good recent example:
- Odds 1.51,
- The favorite is playing at home,
- Excellent play on the ground,
- Leads 3-0 in singles,
- Age of the underdog,
- Not overworked.
Hasn't left Europe in a long time. The selection will leave us with only a few options for a sure bet. The expected percentage of passability of the strategy is about 60-70%, which provides Yield of about +5.5%. By the way, the reverse strategy also works great: if you bet against tennis favorites that do not pass these filters.